Socialize Safely
After a year in confinement, we want to socialize and sip sangria. We want to shed our sweatpants and flaunt our flip-flops. We want to romp and revel in nature.
Spring is in the air! Unfortunately, so is coronavirus.
The good news is that it’s possible to socialize safely. In fact, we need to start practicing! After a year of Zoom and gloom, many of us are rusty. We’ve been talking at screens for over a year. It’s finally time to un-mute and test-drive our pandemic personalities. (Fun fact: the New York Times interviewed me about this!)
We are wired for survival. We’re also wired for connection. We’re actually healthier when we mitigate the risk of COVID-19 and the mental health toll of social isolation—together. Case in point: my son George and my fully vaccinated father pictured above!
So how can we stay safe and be merry in tandem?
Let’s start by (re)visiting the facts.
Just today, the New York Times reported on newly-released real-world data that provides further evidence on three important fronts:
The Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19.
Two weeks after a single dose of either shot, 80% of infections are prevented. Two weeks after the second shot, 90% of infections are prevented. Death and severe disease are essentially off the table after vaccination. As Dr. Gandhi and I have been saying for weeks, the vaccines de-fang and declaw the coronavirus, turning it into its wimpy cousin: the common cold.
Both of these vaccines dramatically reduce asymptomatic infection—e.g. they reduce viral transmission.
Recall that the main driver of the pandemic has been community spread among people who are infected with the virus but don’t have symptoms (otherwise known as “asymptomatic transmission.”) Today’s real-world data shows us what at least nine studies already have demonstrated: not only does vaccination prevent COVID-19; it prevents us from spreading it, too. After you have been vaccinated, it is extremely unlikely to infect someone else.
The vaccines do an extraordinary job against the currently circulating variants.
The immune protection by these vaccines is powerful against the variants. Once you have been vaccinated, your risk of severe COVID-19 due to infection with one of the variants is tiny. Is it possible? Yes. But in the extremely unlikely event of symptomatic infection with ANY coronavirus after vaccination, you’d have a cold or mild flu.
And now to anticipate your savvy questions:
How is this new information, and why are you so excited about it?
Clinical trial data is essential. And in the case of these vaccines, the trial data was stunningly hopeful. But there is nothing more powerful than data collected in real time in the real world—with the variants circulating widely and people behaving like people. When we see death rates, case rates, and hospitalizations drop precipitously after vaccination, it a) confirms the robustness of the clinical trial data and b) shows in sharp relief the wonder of science. This, to me, is exciting. And a reason for sangria.
What about the J & J vaccine? If I got this shot and not the others, am I a sitting duck?
Not at all! The clinical trial data AND the real-world data already demonstrate the extraordinary safety and efficacy of this one-and-done shot. J & J simply wasn’t included in today’s announcement because it came on the scene later than the mRNA vaccines so wasn’t part of this particular study. We don’t necessarily need more real-world data to prove the merits of J & J; nonetheless I suspect similar numbers will emerge on this shot in a few weeks. If you’ve had J & J, you are protected, too.
And now for the million dollar question: how can we socialize safely when not everyone has been vaccinated? Remember these truths:
Vaccinated people together pose essentially zero risk to one another.
I can’t say this enough times. If you have been vaccinated, feel free to frolic with other vaccinated people without fear.
Unvaccinated people are still vulnerable to COVID-19, but less so when they are around vaccinated people.
Because vaccinated people cannot transmit the virus, a single unvaccinated person is safe around a group of vaccinated people. In fact, a single household of unvaccinated people can safely be around an unlimited number of vaccinated people. The problem? Most unvaccinated people aren’t restricting themselves to a pod. And when you mix potentially asymptomatic people together, you by definition add risk. The good news? More vaccine doses are coming. President Biden has said so today.
Risk is on a continuum.
The three COVID risk mitigation elements continue to be masks, distancing, and ventilation. For unvaccinated folks to socialize safely, remember to add a layer of protection every time you add risk. For example, socialize outside. Nature is well-ventilated! And when you unmask to eat, make sure you are distanced six feet. Crowded indoor spaces continue to pose the highest risk for unvaccinated people.
And if you haven’t had enough of me, join me tonight! Professor Emily Oster, PhD and I will talk about kids and COVID, preventing disease and despair in tandem, and assessing risk in an evolving landscape. I hope to see you on Instagram live at 8 pm ET (5 pm PT)!